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ALT SZN SETUP CHECK ⤵️
TOTAL3 (Monthly):
→ Market cap sits near $880B
→ Last two candles showed elevated sell volume
→ Breaking below the 9SMA ($914.99B)
→ Testing the 20SMA ($810.81B) as support
→ Genesis AVWAP near $600B, key level if 20SMA fails
A monthly close back above the 9SMA strengthens the case for a true alt rotation while failure to hold the 20SMA delays the cycle
$BTC Dominance (Monthly):
➤ Dominance at 59.30%
➤ Below the 9SMA (61.61%), above the 20SMA (59.19%)
➤ Holding above the genesis AVWAP (55.82%)
➤ Macro trend shifted from an uptrend (mid ‘23 → mid ‘25) toward distribution
Reclaiming the 9SMA would put Bitcoin back in control and slows alt rotation
Macro Context:
→ The Fed ends QT on Dec 1
→ In 2019, this triggered a multi-month drawdown followed by a sharp recovery that ignited the next major run
Cycle timing now rhymes with that structure
Takeaways:
➤ TOTAL3 needs to hold the 20SMA
➤ $BTC.D needs to stay below the 9SMA
➤ If both align, the rotation window opens
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