TGA balance has climbed from $370B to $580B since early August. Target is $850B, meaning ~$270B of QT still ahead over next 4 weeks. Since the highs of August, $BTC has fallen from $124k -> 110k Another 270B of liquidity drain (assuming things remain the same) should put more pressure on $BTC potentially into the mid 100k range in the coming weeks if sell pressure continues. The TGA refill acts as a temporary form of QT, but once it’s completed and the liquidity drag subsides, it should flip into a tailwind for macro assets during the drawdown phase (see Phase 4 in timeline). As noted in my TGA refill report: Rising stablecoin supply can offset the impact of public liquidity drains. That’s playing out now - the TGA has climbed +$200B, yet aggregate stablecoin supply keeps rising. This liquidity build helps cushion crypto from macro QT pressure, a key buffer to continue monitoring until the refill ends in September. The TGA refill phase playbook is holding up so far. $BTC rallied into a new ATH mid August, $ETH just made a new ATH late August, stablecoin supply is still expanding and risk sentiment remains supported - consistent with Phase 1 of our timeline. The real inflection comes in early September, when Phase 2 kicks in with heavier bill issuance and potential policy shocks. TLDR: Conditions haven’t broken risk yet, but pressure is building. With the heaviest stretch of the TGA refill still ahead, caution is warranted. The headwind will fade but not without impact first. I remain longer term bullish, short-mid term bearish. For my full TGA refill report: