Errant thoughts on a Tuesday morning: 1) The Cook attempted firing will be litigated quickly but not as quickly as folks seem to think. This process will take about few weeks even to wind its way to the Supreme Court on whether the firing will be stayed pending litigation. Cook’s vote for September’s rate meeting will be likely not be officially counted. 2) Any message that this attempted firing is illegitimate isn’t breaking through outside of academic/Dem circles. Talking to a few traders, Cook claiming two residences as primaries reads as an actual reason to relieve her for cause. The idea this action is beyond the pale just isn’t the baseline take. 3) In general, Dem messaging on this seems scattershot. There’s obviously the element from some members to focus on her status as the first black woman governor, but there also seems in many quarters in the left an annoyance of having to defend the Fed at all. I’m seeing a lot of ax-grinding of past feuds with the Fed from finreg groups, which is the baseline messaging from many nonprofit groups this term generally. Folks are still focused on old beefs. 4) The market response seems muted, and somewhat reasonably. This act is a step towards the end of Fed independence but not yet regarded as the main event. Meanwhile, there’s no other global market as good as America even now. The “exorbitant privilege” of the US being so dominant in financial markets is what is preventing the markets from really punishing this action. In fact, there’s dollar dropping even with bond yields rising is probably going to help the Trump Admin’s goal of a somewhat weaker dollar. 5) More than anything else so far, this fight over the Fed independence is the Dems best chance to effect a rapprochement with the business community. But so far, they’re blowing it. All the messaging targeted at business seems to either be scolding the markets for not selling off more or suggesting this attempted firing is neoliberalism. It speaks to the degree to which Dems have lost the muscle memory to engage with the private sector at all. Dem leadership should be seriously asking itself why business and the markets aren’t running back to the Dems amid this, and ideally before the midterm cycle starts in earnest next year.