as crypto matures and moves away from what it’s largely been since inception (i.e. “one big trade”) it will not be enough to just be crypto native. that advantage quickly eroded already on the private side - this is obvious when looking at fund performance over time it will be acutely felt on the liquid side as market structure shifts, especially when allocators are structurally designed to be long the asset class imo you will very clearly need to have a much more holistic view on the world beyond crypto (some will suggest this means macro larping but imo it is more nuanced than this) and punting the question by saying “i don’t time markets” won’t fly if you are holding liquid tokens nobody is expecting allocators to time markets perfectly but if we are entering a regime change where dispersion increases (we are) and the low-hanging fruit of aping anything in private markets has been picked (it has) then having no opinion on broader risk markets outside of crypto is unacceptable i suspect in a few years we will see some truly horrendous performance from crypto-only firms despite many of the promises of the underlying technology being realized in some respects this is already happening in the world of stablecoins. we all know that chart will continue to be up-only and yet, if you pull on the thread of where that value will ultimately accrue you hear some dubious conclusions what’s maybe most interesting is that the world can now move quickly to first order effects thanks to AI and so participants will feel more informed (and probably are tbf) but then the questions are 1) do participants now feel a false sense of security (i.e. i now feel as if i am informed about this thing, when in fact i actually don’t know how it ~really~ works) 2) what are the second and third order effects of how the world will change (since understanding of first order effects are somewhat commoditized) the latter is something we talk quite a bit about at compound, especially as we’ve historically spent more time treating research and primary source material as a first class citizen the former is particularly intriguing to me because it reminds me a bit of @lightcrypto friend saying it’s not the things you don’t know that get you, it’s the things you think you know that just ain’t so