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$IREN - The TRUTH behind the Q1 flex:
✅ Net income $384.6M - but $665M of that is mark-to-market gains on prepaid forwards + capped calls → Adj EBITDA $91.7M is the clean operating benchmark
✅ Today’s mix: $232.9M BTC mining vs $7.3M AI Cloud → yes, still 97% BTC - which means AI revenue is basically untouched upside as the GPU campuses turn on
✅ The $3.4B ARR end-2026 target = $1.94B contracted Microsoft + $1.5B BC buildout runway (based on GPU utilization assumptions)
✅ 140k GPUs is only 16% of IREN’s 3GW power envelope - the hyperscaler infra is already being engineered, paid for & power-secured
✅ $1.8B cash - funded by zero-coupon converts + GPU financing - aggressive, but this is exactly how hyperscalers are born: build before demand hits
✅ Childress redesign to Tier-3-like liquid cooling (100MW superclusters, 130–200kW racks) = they’re optimizing for high-density training loads, not hobby inference
✅ Timeline: BC full GPU conversion Eo’26, Sweetwater 1 Apr’26, Sweetwater 2 late ’27 - this is multi-year infra ramp, not a quarter-to-quarter trade
Bottom line:
IREN is already in hyperscaler territory - the Microsoft deal + NVIDIA alignment prove product-market-fit but the P&L hasn’t caught up yet.
That disconnect = the opportunity.
🟢 $IREN

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