The name debasement trade is not exactly accurate. It's more of a things are not right in the world trade. Retail/HNW is flocking to gold, not because they are trying to express a nuanced view on USD pairs and monetary policy, but because they can intuitively feel the world is not in a good place. People look at the unsustainable fiscal policies, intensifying conflicts between great powers, rise of authoritarianism, political polarization, societal unraveling, and potential AI replacement. They see these trends and feel fear. Gold is the trade that speaks most strongly to people during these times. Gold is clearly locally overheated but it is difficult to predict exactly when it will top. Should still be much higher in 6-12 months. The trends driving it are strong and ongoing. I have TPed some but will continue to surf with the rest of my bag. We have had 1.2% of annual total supply (incl. all scrap) taken out with the Grasberg mine closure, and that is meaningful in a tight market. Gold has stolen some of BTC's thunder this year, as BTC has failed to show sufficient momentum. As the ultimate momentum asset, BTC choked on the big stage. This is due to OG selling as ownership is still fairly concentrated, and jitters given memetic consensus around the 4 year cycle. I have to believe that a meaningful % of people who were going to sell due to the cycle, have already done so. So as we get later and later in the year, this overhang progressively clears. There is good evidence that BTC follows gold on a 60-90 day lag. There are arguments on why this wouldn't happen this time, but it is best to believe the pattern until decisively proven wrong. Things might be choppy until we hit that window, and we get full resolution around the China trade flare-up (likely around Oct 30th or a few days later). Continue to believe the real fireworks will be next year as these overhangs will be lessened, while the positive drivers will accelerate.